Dutch Books for Language Models
econ.GN, cs.AI, cs.CL, cs.LG, q-fin.EC
Submitted: 2026-09-02
Updated: 2026-09-02
Comments: 14 pages, 6 figures
License: http://arxiv.org/licenses/nonexclusive-distrib/1.0/
Terminology
Sources
- AIA Forecaster: Technical Report
- Revealed Rationality: Label-Free Evaluation and Regularization from Representation Theorems
- PolyBench: Benchmarking LLM Forecasting and Trading Capabilities on Live Prediction Market Data
- Language Models (Mostly) Know What They Know
- Elicitation Matters: How Prompts and Query Protocols Shape LLM Surrogates under Sparse Observations
- Do Large Language Models Know What They Don't Know? Kalshibench: A New Benchmark for Evaluating Epistemic Calibration via Prediction Markets
- Poly-EPO: Training Exploratory Reasoning Models
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