TRACE: Diagnosing Verifier Brittleness in Agentic Evaluation

Verifier scores now serve as both benchmark metrics and training rewards for large language model (LLM) agents, and a change in score is routinely read as a change in capability. It may instead reflect a change in the evaluation. We introduce TRACE, a protocol that turns a score change from a verdict into a testable diagnosis: it applies a targeted change to one part of an evaluation, compares paired runs, checks whether the agent's behavior changed, and rescores unchanged trajectories to test whether the scoring rule is responsible. In a controlled suite of 25 synthetic tasks, renaming tools lowers a scripted agent's score by 0.250 even though it performs exactly the same operations; restoring the original names at scoring time closes the entire gap, while the same mutation exposes a genuine behavioral failure in a second agent. On public τ squared-bench tasks with four LLM agents, an initial 30-task study finds mixed reward changes whose one clear effect does not replicate. In a larger follow-up on 88 new tasks with repeated runs per condition, renaming tools or reformatting tool outputs leaves reward unchanged to within plus or minus 0.10 for seven of eight agent-change pairs, whereas tool names that deliberately mislead lower every agent's reward by 0.20-0.44, showing that the setup can detect real effects. Identical reruns flip 15-36% of task outcomes, so single-run comparisons cannot separate presentation effects from run-to-run variation. Two frontier LLM judges give consistent verdicts when a fixed trajectory is presented differently, yet disagree with each other on 57% of the same records, largely because one grades procedure rather than outcome. TRACE thus separates what a score change says about the agent from what it says about the measurement.