Simulating Training Spikes of Deep Neural Networks by Layer-wise Random Feature Models

arXiv:2610.13524 · cs.LG · Submitted 2026-10-09 · Read on arXiv

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Introduction to the show: ident: AI Radio. Generated commentary on the latest Artificial Intelligence papers.

Tom: Today's paper: "Simulating Training Spikes of Deep Neural Networks by Layer-wise Random Feature Models".

Jane: The gist The paper shows that simple quadratic models with heavy-tailed,

Tom: First, who's behind it and why it matters.

Title and authors: Tom: So we’re looking at this paper, "Simulating Training Spikes of Deep Neural Networks by Layer-wise Random Feature Models." It tackles that mystery about intermittent loss spikes in LLM pre-training.

Jane: The core idea they present is that simple quadratic models with heavy-tailed, power-law distributed inputs can actually replicate these intermittent “spikes” in loss, which is what they call training spikes.

Lu: They set up a theoretical framework and a simulation algorithm to model the per-layer training dynamics of Deep Neural Networks using those quadratic models.

Meng: The authors use this framework to explore why these spikes happen, moving away from just looking at the overall network behavior during training.

Lalam: It’s about modeling what happens within each layer, which helps them pinpoint where the instability is coming from.

The paper's summary: Tom: They summarize their contributions by first developing this framework that aligns DNN layers with simple Random Feature models to enable lightweight simulations of training dynamics.

Jane: That’s significant because it allows them to scientifically study these elusive phenomena like training spikes in DNNs, which is something they say is surprising because even convex quadratic models show similar behavior.

Lu: They are showing that spiky behavior isn't just tied to the complex, non-convex nature of feature learning in DNNs, as some research suggests, but it can happen even with simpler PLRF models.

Meng: They conduct a case study on an Adam hyperparameter configuration where β2 is set close to one in a Transformer LM, and their simulation successfully predicts the spiky behavior for a given model checkpoint <ref:2610.13524#pg1,a case study on an Adam hyperparameter configuration where β2 is set>.

Lalam: Beyond just predicting the spikes, they derive an appropriate β2 schedule from observed metrics, which they claim empirically improves performance when analyzing several training metrics in detail <ref:2610.13524#pg1,derive an appropriate β2 schedule from observed metrics, which>.

The paper's improvements: Tom: The paper suggests several practical improvements. First, they can predict "bumps" indicating spiky behavior from a given model checkpoint using their simulation algorithm and Power-Law Random Feature models, as shown in Section four and Figure three <ref:2610.13524#pg2>.

Jane: They also show that the power-law exponent alpha is critical; a larger alpha is a necessary condition for these spikes to occur when comparing PLRF training trajectories across different optimizers or learning rates.

Lu: They point out two specific conditions for training spikes in PLRF: one, heavy-tailed data, meaning a large alpha, and two, near divergence when comparing the validation loss with different learning rates.

Meng: They observed that when alpha is zero point three and the learning rate increases, the validation loss diverges without showing any spikes; but when alpha is zero point nine and you compare different optimizers, both exhibit training spikes before divergence.

Lalam: They also derive a specific β2 schedule, which they claim empirically improves performance in terms of validation loss when analyzing several metrics in detail <ref:2610.13524#pg1>.

Conclusion: Tom: So to wrap up the "Simulating Training Spikes of Deep Neural Networks by Layer-wise Random Feature Models," the paper suggests that quadratic models at least partially reveal the underlying mechanism behind these spikes.

Jane: They urge the community to move away from analyzing full-batch gradient descent and worst-case bounds, moving toward studying stochastic optimization and average-case behavior of DNN training with heavy-tailed data.

Lu: The proposed β2 schedule is presented as a recipe that can indeed avoid spikes in the simulation and empirically improve performance <ref:2610.13524#pg1>.

Meng: It’s important to note that the paper shows the mechanism, but it doesn't solve every training issue; it points us toward better optimization recipes rather than just a single fix.

Lalam: The authors also flag a limitation: they are using quadratic models, which is an approximation, so it only reveals part of the underlying mechanism rather than explaining everything completely.

Tom: So that’s the idea behind this paper on training spikes, using layer-wise random feature models to simulate and predict them. We’ll be looking at how these simulation techniques compare to other methods in our next discussion on arXiv.

Ran Tian, Courtney Paquette

Google DeepMind

cs.LG

Submitted: 2026-10-09

Updated: 2026-10-09

License: http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

Importance score: 87/100

The gist: The gist The paper shows that simple quadratic models with heavy-tailed, power-law distributed inputs can replicate intermittent “spikes” in loss during pre-training of Large Language Models

Key concepts

Power-Law Random Feature (PLRF) Models
These are simple linear regression models with a quadratic loss function used to approximate the dynamics of individual layers in a Deep Neural Network. They are employed because they can replicate the training spikes observed in complex DNNs when trained on heavy-tailed data distributions.
Heavy-Tailed Data (Large $\alpha$)
This refers to data where extreme values occur more frequently than expected, characterized by a large power-law exponent $\alpha$. The paper shows that for training spikes to appear in PLRF models, the data must possess this heavy-tailed characteristic.
$\beta_2$ Schedule (Adam Optimization)
$\beta_2$ is a hyperparameter in the Adam optimization algorithm that controls how quickly the second moment estimate adapts. The authors derived an appropriate schedule for $\beta_2$ based on observed training metrics, which empirically led to better validation loss performance by avoiding detrimental spikes.

Summary

The gist The paper shows that simple quadratic models with heavy-tailed, power-law distributed inputs can replicate intermittent “spikes” in loss during pre-training of Large Language Models (LLMs) by introducing a theoretical framework and simulation algorithm to model per-layer training dynamics using such models.

How it works

The authors introduce a theoretical framework that posits that normal fluctuations in loss are driven solely by data shuffling because high model dimensionality typically cancels out model-originated randomness when the data distribution is heavy-tailed, resulting in training spikes. They demonstrate this mechanism using Power-Law Random Feature (PLRF) models, which are simple linear-regression models with quadratic loss.

The simulation framework is largely inspired by Lee et al. (2019), utilizing a Taylor expansion of the DNN at training step t to predict dynamics up to a future step t + s. This approach is advanced by incorporating stochastic optimization algorithms like SGD and Adam, which are more representative of real-world practices than full-batch gradient descent.

Key Findings on PLRF Models

The simulation reveals that even simple models like PLRF can exhibit training spikes. The power-law exponent α, which quantifies the “heavy-tailedness” of the data distribution, is critical; a larger α is a necessary condition for these spikes to occur when comparing PLRF training trajectories across different optimizers, learning rates, and power-law exponents.

The findings highlight two conditions for training spikes in PLRF: (1) heavy-tailed data (large α) and (2) near divergence (large learning-rate) when comparing the validation loss of PLRF with different learning rates, they observe that when α = 0.3, as the learning-rate increases, validation loss diverges without showing any spikes. In contrast, when α = 0.9, both optimizers exhibit training spikes before divergence.

Theoretical Framework and Dynamics

The framework aligns each DNN layer with a Random Feature model using a layer-wise quadratic loss. The metric δ w t,s is defined as a quadratic function of wt+s, which can be written as “L[wt+s]+Constant”.

The simulation algorithm uses Prediction 3.5 to synthesize “pseudo gradients” by randomly sampling Gaussians to match the average and 2nd moment, at each step of the simulation. This involves tracking the D-dimensional vector z = c(w − w∗), where (wi)1≤i≤D and (w∗i)1≤i≤D are the representations of w and w∗ under the eigen basis.

Simulation Results and Insights

The simulation successfully predicts spiky behavior for a given model checkpoint in a case study on an Adam hyperparameter configuration (where β2 is set close to 1) known to induce spikes in Transformer LMs. The authors also derive an appropriate β2 schedule from observed metrics, which empirically improves performance when analyzing several training metrics in detail and offering optimization recipes such as an appropriate β2 schedule, which can avoid spikes and empirically improve performance.

Empirically verifying Prediction 3.5, the ratio HY/M, which should be close to 1 according to Equation (3.4), shows that the relative error of Equation (3.4) is less than 0.1, mostly within 5%. Furthermore, in Figure 9, the ratio HY/M is close to 1 as predicted.

Conclusion and Future Directions

The work suggests that quadratic models at least partially reveals the essence of underlying mechanism. The authors urge the community to move from analyzing full-batch gradient descent and worst-case bounds, to the more realistic and challenging settings of stochastic optimization and average-case behavior of DNN training, with heavy-tailed input data and scaling-up of model sizes. The proposed β2 schedule can indeed improve performance in terms of validation loss.

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The paper is a scientific investigation into the underlying mechanisms causing intermittent training spikes in Deep Neural Networks (DNNs) by modeling layer-wise dynamics using simple quadratic Random Feature models and simulating training behavior under stochastic optimization.

Conclusion and Future Directions

The work suggests that quadratic models at least partially reveals the essence of underlying mechanism.

Improvements for AI systems

  1. Improved Training Spike Prediction: The system can predict bumps indicating spiky behavior from a given checkpoint by using a simulation algorithm that models per-layer training dynamics using Power-Law Random Feature (PLRF) models, as shown in Section 4 and Figure 3.

  2. Empirical Hyperparameter Optimization: The system can derive an appropriate Adam hyperparameter schedule by analyzing observed metrics, specifically proposing the recipe: set (C.3) β2 ≈ 1 − s / ηt T√N, which empirically improves performance in validation loss (Table 3).

  3. Robust Training Dynamics Understanding: The system can analyze the underlying cause of training spikes by linking them to heavy-tailed data distributions, noting that a larger α is a necessary condition for these spikes to occur (Section 2) and confirming that training spikes can occur at different steps between 'Spiky1' and 'Spiky2' (Figure 1).

  4. Layer-wise Noise Characterization: The system can diagnose the source of instability by analyzing the evolution of eigenvalue distributions, noting that eigenvalues from Spiky are more heavy-tailed (Figure 7), providing an indicator of healthy training dynamics.

  5. Adaptive Batch-Size Heuristics: The system can suggest heuristics for tuning the batch-size to minimize gradient noise, stating that one can empirically measure the third factor and tune the batch-size to make B ≈ 1 (Section C.4).

Abstract

Intermittent ``spikes'' in loss, during the pre-training of Large Language Models (LLMs), remains a mysterious phenomenon both theoretically and empirically. In this paper, we show that simple quadratic models with heavy-tailed, power-law distributed inputs can replicate these spikes. We introduce a theoretical framework and simulation algorithm to model per-layer training dynamics of Deep Neural Networks (DNNs), using such quadratic models. In a case study on an Adam hyperparameter configuration (where β 2 is set close to 1) known to induce spikes in Transformer LMs, our simulation successfully predicts bumps indicating spiky behavior from a given checkpoint. Furthermore, we derive an appropriate β 2 schedule from observed metrics, which empirically improves performance.

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