Secular Evolution of Quasiperiodic Eruptions: eRO-QPE2

Quasi-periodic eruptions (QPEs) are recurrent soft X-ray flares from galactic nuclei. In this work, we analyze both the quiescent and eruption emission of eRO-QPE2, using 11 XMM-Newton observations spanning 4.33, yr. The key findings include (1) the eruption peak count rate remains approximately constant, while the quiescent count rate shows an approximately linear decline superposed with a large-amplitude oscillation; (2) no secondary eruptions are detected between the normal eruptions and any such events would have to be fainter by more than two orders of magnitude; (3) the recurrence time decreases at an average rate of rec about-5 times10-6. These findings are consistent with an extreme mass-ratio inspiral (EMRI) interacting with a precessing accretion disk and producing two normal eruptions per orbital period. Bayesian timing analyses further constrain the EMRI orbital eccentricity to e<0.033 (at 95% confidence level).